391764 نظرها

• پیوند نظر چهارشنبه, 18 ارديبهشت 1404 13:25 ارسال شده توسط https kra cc

  By Clyde Russell
  
  LAUNCESTON, Australia, May 5 (Reuters) - If there is one thing that is
  almost certain in the current global crude oil market, it's that the stated reasons
  for the OPEC+ group of exporters increasing
  supply are not the real reasons.
  
  The eight OPEC+ countries that are party to voluntary output cuts met
  on May 3 and decided to ease their curbs
  again for June, this time adding back 411,000 barrels
  per day (bpd).
  
  The June hike will take the total combined increase for April, May and June to 960,
  000 bpd, representing a 44% unwinding of the
  2.2 million bpd cut, according to Reuters calculations.
  
  
  The eight said in a statement on the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) website that the decision to lift
  output came amid the "current healthy market fundamentals as reflected in the low oil inventories."
  
  The problem for OPEC+ is that there is little evidence to support
  the assertion of healthy market fundamentals, and while visible crude inventories are slightly below five-year average levels, they are far from low enough to spark any concerns.
  
  
  The OPEC monthly report for April showed that commercial crude inventories in developed
  economies in the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development were 2.746 billion barrels at the end of
  February, down 16.1 million barrels from the prior month and
  71 million barrels below the five-year average.
  
  
  In other words, OECD stocks were a mere 2.5% below the
  five-year average, which seems reasonable given the
  rising crude oil prices that prevailed between September and January and the rising risk of a global economic slowdown since the return of Donald Trump to
  the U.S. presidency.
  
  China, the world's biggest oil importer, doesn't disclose its commercial or strategic inventories, but it's likely that it significantly boosted storage flows in March, having drawn down slightly in the first two months of the year.
  
  
  
  Calculations based on official data for imports, domestic output and refinery throughput
  showed a surplus of 1.74 million bpd in March as
  China imported considerably more crude than it processed
  into refined fuels.
  
  With inventory levels not really an issue for the crude oil market, what
  can be made of OPEC+'s assertion of "healthy" fundamentals.
  
  
  ASIA IMPORTS
  
  The situation in Asia, the world's biggest importing region and buyer of about 60% of global
  seaborne crude volumes, is instructive.
  
  Asia's seaborne imports recovered in March and April after
  a weak February, with commodity analysts Kpler showing arrivals of 25.27 million bpd
  and 25.28 million bpd respectively.
  
  This was up from 23.31 million bpd in January and 23.94
  million bpd in February.
  
  However, for the first four months of 2025 Asia's seaborne imports are still down 280,000 bpd from the same period in 2024, hardly
  suggestive of healthy demand.
  
  It's also the case that much of the increase in March and April was down to elevated imports by China,
  and those reflected temporary factors.
  
  March arrivals were boosted by a sharp jump in imports from Iran as refiners
  stocked up on cheaper crude amid fears of increased U.S.
  sanctions on shipments from the Islamic Republic.
  
  
  
  In April, China saw a rebound in imports from Russia, which had been softer in March amid
  tighter U.S. measures on vessels carrying Russian crude.
  
  
  The outlook for crude demand is also somewhat mixed in coming months.
  
  
  While May to July is traditionally a higher demand
  season amid summer construction and agriculture activity,
  there is an increasing likelihood that the trade war
  launched by Trump will start curbing oil demand.
  
  
  The massive 145% tariff on imports from China is already reducing container shipping,
  and will likely affect air freight in coming weeks as well.
  
  
  
  Lower shipping volumes will filter through to weaker road
  transport in both China and the United States, and faltering consumer confidence is
  likely to hurt air and road travel.
  
  Even if trade tensions do ease, the slowdown in shipping is already locked in for the next few months
  and perhaps longer as it will take time for supply chains to recover or be re-worked.
  
  
  So what is OPEC+ actually trying to achieve by lifting output?
  
  
  There are several answers, and probably all
  hold some validity.
  
  The group's de facto leader Saudi Arabia may well be trying to encourage
  greater quote compliance from other members by forcing them to accept lower prices.
  
  
  
  The Saudis may also be trying to go some way to meeting Trump's demand for lower prices,
  which would help the U.S. leader fulfil a campaign promise of lower
  energy costs, although it would also come at the cost of hurting the U.S.
  
  oil industry that he promised to boost.
  
  OPEC+ may also be trying to use low prices to limit oil output in other major producers, such as the United States and Brazil, given their higher cost of production.
  
  The end result is that it's hard to make anything other than a bearish case for oil
  prices, at least for the coming months, as more supply runs headlong into the rising likelihood of lower demand.
  
  
  
  The early market assessment of the OPEC+ move bears
  this out, with Brent futures dropping as much as 3.7% in early Asian trade to a
  low of $58.50 a barrel, down from the close of $61.29 on May 2.
  
  
  The views expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for
  Reuters.
  
  (Editing by Michael Perry)
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